With early returns showing little room for I-638 ‘No’ flip, advocates prepare for court battle

While initial election returns show Washington voters approving Initiative 638, LGBTQ+ civil rights advocates emphasize that there are still votes to count, holding out hope as hundreds of thousands of drop-box and mail-in ballots continue to be tabulated across the state. They are also preparing to battle the measure in court.

The Capitol Hill-based Gender Justice League offered an urgent assessment of the measure, which restricts transgender girls from competing in K–12 female sports categories and requires biological sex verification for all female student-athletes.

“I-638 was sold as a rule about a handful of Trans youth, when in reality, it’s a medical sex check for every girl playing school sports in this state — whether Trans or not,” a statement from the organization said.

The organization said it is readying to support plans to challenge the law in court alongside coalition partners if the vote holds, while noting that late funding hindered broad grassroots voter education.

A flip faces challenging math. Statewide, the “Yes” campaign holds a 291,722-vote advantage as of Thursday morning. With an estimated 600,000 to 900,000 ballots left to count across Washington, the “No” campaign needs roughly 63% to 74% of all outstanding ballots to reverse the lead.

In King County, the state’s primary progressive bastion and one of only a few counties where “No” is ahead, the measure has generated 57.25% against it so far.

With the likelihood that the vote holds, the next focus will be on making sure the ban can’t be put in place. In a statement, the ACLU of Washington said it will “never waver in its commitment to transgender people and their right to exist as their full selves, and we will explore all potential next steps to uphold the rights of transgender girls and their access to school sports.”

“Transgender youth are our neighbors, children, friends and family, and like everyone, they have the right to live and play in our communities as their true selves,” the organization’s statement concluded.

Community organizers including GEM Seattle are mobilizing for a rally and march at Westlake Park Thursday night. Demonstrators will gather to demand the protection of transgender youth, plan next steps, and celebrate the historic election of Jaelynn Scott, Washington’s first openly trans state legislator who will represent the  37th District including South Seattle.